The Future of EU Agricultural Markets by AGMEMOD

<p>PART I</p><p> </p><p>Introduction </p><p>1. Background</p><p>1.1 Origins of EU and CAP</p><p>1.1.1 Recent CAP Reforms</p><p>1.1.2 Future Evolution of CAP</p><p>1.2 Modelling the CAP at Member State Level</p><p>1.2.1 Heterogeneity of EU Agriculture</p><p>1.2.2 Heterogeneity of EU Agricultural Policy</p><p>1.2.3 Heterogeneity of CAP Outcomes</p><p>1.3 Model Features</p><p>1.4 Economic Models of European Agriculture</p><p>1.5 The Baseline Concept</p><p>1.6 Conclusion</p><p>2. Model Structure and Parameterisation</p><p>2.1 PE Model Structure</p><p>2.2 AGMEMOD Model Structure</p><p>2.2.1 Country and Commodity Coverage</p><p>2.2.2 Functional Form</p><p>2.2.3 Price Formation and Market Closure</p><p>2.3 Estimating and Testing</p><p>2.4 Policy Modelling</p><p>2.5 Conclusion</p><p>3. AGMEMOD Model</p><p>3.1 Database</p><p>3.1.1 Mnemonics Protocol</p>3.1.2 Endogenous Variables</p><p>3.1.3 Exogenous Variables</p><p>3.1.4 Data Generator Tool</p><p>3.2 Combination of Country Models</p><p>3.2.1 From Conceptual to Computer Model</p><p>3.2.2 GAMS Generator  Tool</p><p>3.3 AGMEMOD User Interface</p><p>3.3.1 Viewing and Revising Data</p><p>3.3.2 Viewing and Revising Equations</p><p>3.3.3 Viewing and Revising the GAMS Model</p><p>3.3.4 Running the Model and Showing the Output</p><p>3.4 Validation</p><p>3.4.1 Procedure</p><p>3.4.2 Helpful Tools</p><p>3.5 Conclusion</p><p>PART II</p><p>4. EU Market Outlook</p><p>4.1 Baseline Formulation</p><p>4.1.1 Marcoeconomy</p><p>4.1.2 World Market Prices</p><p>4.1.3 Agricultural (Trade) and Biofuel Policies</p><p>4.2 EU Baseline Market Outlook</p><p>4.2.1 EU Grains and Oilseeds Baseline</p><p>4.2.2 EU Other Crops Baseline</p><p>4.2.3 EU Livestock and Meat Baseline</p><p>4.2.4 EU Milk and Dairy Products Baseline</p><p>4.3 Conclusion</p>5. The CAP Beyond 2013</p><p>5.1 CAP Direct Payment Issue</p><p>5.2 Methodological Concept and Scenarios Definition</p><p>5.3 Scenario Results</p><p>5.3.1 Grains and Oilseeds</p><p>5.3.2 Livestock and Meat</p><p>5.3.3 Milk and Dairy Products</p><p>5.4 Conclusion</p><p> </p><p>6. Conclusions and Future Work</p><p> </p>Index