Broad Scale Coastal Simulation

<p>Chapter 1 - The Challenge for Coastal Management During the Third Millennium</p><p>Summary</p><p>1.1 Introduction</p><p>1.2 Coastal Management in the Third Millennium: The Need for an Integrated Response</p><p>1.3 Conceptualizing and Designing a Coastal Simulator</p><p>1.4 Scenarios for Coastal Assessment</p><p>1.5 The Study Sites</p><p>1.6 Conclusions and Next Steps</p><p>Acknowledgements</p><p>References</p><p> </p><p>Chapter 2 - Climate Downscaling: Local Mean Sea-Level, Surge and Wave Modelling</p><p>Summary</p><p>2.1 Introduction</p><p>2.2. Regional Scale Variability in Climate and Sea Level</p><p>2.3. Storms in the Present and Future Climate</p><p>2.4. Model Forcing from Hadley Centre Climate Model</p><p>2.5. Surge and Wave Models and the Downscaling Methodology</p><p>2.6. Model Results for Future Climate Scenarios</p><p>2.7. Conclusions and Next Steps</p><p>Acknowledgements</p><p>References</p><p> </p><p>Chapter 3 - Broad-Scale Hydrodynamic Simulation, Wave Transformation and Sediment Pathways</p><p>Summary       </p><p>3.1 Introduction</p><p>3.2 Methodology for Transferring Waves and Surge Towards the Coastline and Assessing Residual Sediment Transport</p><p>3.3 Changes in Inshore Waves Due to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise         </p><p>3.4 Influence of Sea Level Rise on Sediment Pathways</p><p>3.5. Conclusions and Next Steps</p><p>References   </p><p> </p><p>Chapter 4 – Land Use Dynamics and Coastal Management </p><p>Summary</p><p>4.1. Introduction</p><p>4.2.</p> Modelling Land Use Change in Coastal Areas<p></p><p>4.2.1 Challenges</p><p>4.2.2 Spatial Dynamic Modelling: Some Principles</p><p>4.2.3 Socio-Economic Storylines</p><p>4.3. Translating Socio-Economic Storylines with an Algorithm-Based Approach</p><p>4.4. Translating Socio-Economic Storylines with A Choice-Based Approach</p><p>4.5. Conclusions and Next Steps</p><p>References</p><p> </p><p>Chapter 5 - Evaluating Broad-Scale Morphological Change in the Coastal Zone Using a Logic Based Behavioural Systems Approach</p><p>Summary</p><p>1.1 Introduction</p><p>1.2 Capturing Current Knowledge and Understanding</p><p>1.3 Illustrative Application to the East Anglian Coast, UK</p><p>1.4 Benefits of a Qualitative Deductive Assessment</p><p>1.5 Conclusions and Next Steps</p><p>References</p><p> </p><p>Chapter 6 – Coastal Wetland Habitats: Future Challenges and Potential Solutions         </p><p>Summary       </p><p>6.1 Introduction        </p><p>6.2 The Tyndall Simulator Approach</p><p>6.3 Conclusions and Next Steps  </p><p>References   </p><p> </p><p>Chapter 7 – Simulating the Shore and Cliffs of North Norfolk</p><p>Summary</p><p>7.1 Introduction        </p><p>7.2 Description of the Coast          </p><p>7.3 Model Construction      </p><p>7.4 Future Climate Change and Coastal Management                        </p><p>7.5 Results    </p><p>7.6 Conclusions and Next Steps  </p><p>References   </p><p> </p><p>Chapter 8 – Broad Scale Coastal Inundation Modelling</p><p>Summary       </p><p>8.1 Intr</p>oduction        <p></p><p>8.2 Approaches to Coastal Inundation Modelling         </p><p>8.3 Application to North Norfolk    </p><p>8.4 Conclusions and Next Steps  </p><p>Acknowledgements</p><p>References</p><p> </p><p>Chapter 9 – Broad Scale Flood and Erosion Risk Analysis</p><p> </p><p>Chapter 10 – Visualising Potential Coastal Change: Communicating Results Using Visualisation Techniques   </p><p>Summary       </p><p>10.1 Introduction – Challenges Associated with Communicating and Visualising Coastal Change      </p><p>10.2 The Coastal Simulator – Visualisation Approach(Es)      </p><p>10.3 Exploring Coastal Futures – Testing the Visualisations in Coastal Decision-Making and Stakeholder Engagement  </p><p>10.4 Conclusions and Next Steps            </p><p>References   </p><p> </p><p>Chapter 11 – The Coastal Simulator Interface: Integration and Application</p><p> </p><p>Chapter 12 – Many Stakeholders, Multiple Perspectives: Long-Term Planning for a Future Coast</p><p>Summary       </p><p>12.1 Introduction      </p><p>12.2 The Challenges of a Changeable Coast: North Norfolk, UK      </p><p>12.3 Stakeholder Engagement in the Development of the Tyndall Coastal Simulator                   </p><p>12.4 Shifting Sands: Lessons Learned for Managing a Changing Coast    </p><p>12.5 Conclusions and Next Steps            </p><p>References   </p><p> </p><p>Chapter 13 – Living with Uncertainty: Difficult Choices for Coastal Management in the UK During the Third Millennium      </p><p>Summary  </p>     <p></p><p>13.1 Introduction      </p><p>13.2 Re-Visiting the Response to the 1953 Event         </p><p>13.3 How the Simulator Approach Helps Improve Coastal Management     </p><p>13.4 The Process of Developing a Coastal Simulator: What Have We Learnt?       </p><p>13.5 Key Lessons for UK Coastal Management: Transferring the Simulator for Wider Application         </p><p>13.6 Key Lessons for Researchers and Research Funders to Develop UK Coastal Simulator Capacity            </p><p>References   </p><p> </p><p>Chapter 14 – Generic Lessons for Coastal Management in the Third Millennium </p><p>Summary       </p><p>14.1 Introduction      </p><p>14.2 Key Threats, Opportunities and Priorities for Adaptation and Development in Coastal Areas in the Next 5 Decades        </p><p>14.3 Transference of Methods and the Wider Lessons for the International Community</p><p>14.4 Coastal Management for the Third Millennium – A Manifesto for Research, Development and Collaboration            </p>References